Race to the Bottom-36% Spike in New Covid Infections

On Saturday, 6/12/20, there were over 140,000 new Covid infections worldwide, the largest single day spike to date, and the U.S. is leading this ghoulish race to the bottom.

A leaked CDC Document shows that the U.S. had a 36.5% spike in new Covid-19 infections between June 6 and June 9, by far the worst spike of any country in the world. The next worst hit countries, India, Russia and Peru, all showed spikes of less than 5%, while Brazil, Spain, Italy and Germany showed declines. 

21 states have reported increased infections, and 9 are seeing increased rates of hospitalizations, including California, the hardest hit state in the country, where new infections have surpassed 2,500 nearly every day since Memorial Day. Yesterday (June 12, 2020), California had 3,627 new cases, according to worldometer. Over the past 2 weeks, there have been nearly 500 new cases in San Mateo County (61.6 new cases per 100,000), more than double the Governor’s benchmark for reopening (e.g., less than 25 per 100,000 over a 2-week period). In San Francisco, there have been 404 new cases over the past 2 weeks (46 per 100,000 residents), which is nearly double the Governor's benchmark. LA, which is the hardest hit county in the state, chalked up nearly 19,000 new cases over the past 2 weeks for a rate of 186.7 per 100,000, nearly 7.5 times the Governor's benchmark. San Diego County had nearly 1900 new cases over the past two weeks, for a rate of 57 per 100,000.

It is clear that the surges of new infections have been caused primarily by the reopening of businesses and the lifting of Shelter-In-Place (SIP) restrictions. Scientists also believe that Memorial Day outings contributed to the spikes and that the anti-police brutality protests likely did, as well.

Loud yelling (as occurred at the protests) is known to increase the spread of droplets and likely undermined the moderate protections afforded by masks. This fact is particularly relevant to schools, where speaking in a “teacher voice” would also increase airborne droplets, and where students, who sometimes get frustrated or angry, may yell at each other or staff.

According to Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, continuing to open things up will cause an additional 100,000 deaths by September (and that’s before flu season has even begun, when the compounding effects of the two diseases will likely cause the daily death toll to go out the roof).

Now is NOT the time to reopen schools. Keeping students and teachers home is one of the best documented ways to slow the pandemic AND save lives (for evidence of this, read here, and here, and here). Furthermore, if we care about racial justice and equity, then we must keep the schools closed. African Americans, Latinos and Pacific Islanders are the groups most affected by illness, complications and death from Covid-19. Reopening the schools to in-person learning will put these members of our community at particular risk. However, let’s not forget that one-third of all teachers are at elevated risk, regardless of ethnicity, due to age and underlying health conditions.