Biased Science in the Service of Capital

 

Dear Superintendent and School Board,

 

It is not too late to reverse the irresponsible and potentially deadly plan to reopen our schools this month. Considering what we are already seeing throughout Europe and parts the U.S., with the much more infectious and deadly UK variant driving new surges, with school outbreaks already are the largest source of new infections in places like Michigan and Illinois, the most prudent, compassionate and rational policy would be to keep our schools closed, at least until the end of this school year.

 

As a former scientist in the infectious disease department of UCSF, I can say with confidence and without bias or exaggeration, that the “science” you are getting from the CDC, from the Department of Education, and from the County Board of Health, is both incomplete and biased. Each of these agencies is getting immense pressure from the federal and local governments to provide data that justifies school reopenings. Consequently, their scientists are falling into similar patterns as those scientists working for the tobacco companies who found data to support their claim that smoking really wasn’t that dangerous to smokers or the people around them, and those working for fossil fuel companies who found data supporting their claim that fossil fuels really weren’t so bad for the environment.

 

For example, the CDC is expected to loosen its guidelines and say that 3 feet of social distancing is safe. But in order to justify this policy, they cited a study published last week in Clinical Infectious Diseases, in which the authors claim that the new “three-feet rule” was proven safe in Massachusetts, because enarly 100% of residents wear masks. Yet, in the 251 school districts observed in this study, “4,226 cases were reported in students and 2,382 in school staff.” Furthermore, the study did not involve contact tracing or surveillance testing, so we have no idea how many thousands more people in the general community were infected as a result of their contacts with these infected students and staff members, nor how many hundreds died, as a result. And most significantly, the study was conducted prior to the spread of the more infectious and lethal B.1.1.7 variant of the virus, rendering it completely irrelevant and meaningless under today’s conditions, where that variant is quickly becoming the dominant variant across the country.

 

Indeed, nearly all of the studies that are cited to justify school reopenings are based on data collected prior to the emergence of the UK variant. Furthermore, they never define “safe.” To most parents, a safe school means one where the risk of injury or death is negligible. We can safely and honestly promise them that their kids won’t catch measles or polio because no one is permitted on campus who hasn’t been vaccinated against those diseases. We can not honestly say that with covid. In fact, it is entirely hypocritical, not to mention a logical contradiction, to require vaccines for other deadly diseases that are not presently at pandemic levels, while not requiring vaccines for covid, which is still at extremely high levels in the community.

 

Lastly, in all of the studies cited to justify the claim that it is “safe” to return to school, infections and outbreaks still occurred at schools. Even with the best mitigation efforts in place, asymptomatic and presymptomatic people continue to come onto school campuses and expose other people. Even with masks and six feet of distancing, some virus particles make it into the common air and onto common surfaces. And those infected individuals take the germs home with them, into grocery stores, playgrounds, barbershops and malls, infecting family and community members, contributing to new surges, as we are seeing in Michigan, Illinois, Italy, Brazil, Germany, Poland and France.

 

But even if you choose to ignore the misery and deaths that occur in the general community as a result of school outbreaks, as the government scientists, politicians and media are doing, you surely must care about the misery and suffering of our own students. And this risk has been grossly misrepresented by the politicians and media. Consider that as of March 11, there have been 3.28 million children infected with Covid in the U.S. alone, according to the latest data from the American Academy of Pediatrics. And, according to this study, published last week in The Lancet, it is estimated that 13% of 2-10 year-olds, and 15% of 12-16 year-olds, who catch covid have at least one significant symptom five weeks after testing positive. The authors go on to say, “Given uncertainty around the long-term health effects of SARS-CoV-2 infection, it would be unwise to let the virus circulate in children, with consequent risk to their families… By contributing to high community transmission, it also provides fertile ground for virus evolution and new variants.”

 

Doing the math, if only 10 students catch covid at our schools over the next 6 weeks, which would be a pretty good record considering we’ve already had 2 infected students on campus, just at BHS, and during a period of extremely low human density on our campuses, 1-2 of those students would become too sick to return to school this school year, having at least one significant symptom well into their summer vacation. And that suffering would be entirely the fault of the irresponsible and senseless reopening of our schools. Furthermore, 5 weeks is just the tip of the iceberg. Kids do get “long haul” syndrome. Consequently, students infected now could be too sick to return in the fall. Consider that at least one of our teachers still has symptoms, more than six months after catching covid last summer.

 

 

Thank you, once again, for your time and consideration.

 

 

Michael Dunn

Parent and Science Teacher, BHS

 

 

Check your exuberance at the door.

Dear Superintendent and School Board Members,

March 17, 2021

Please check your exuberance at the door. It’s premature and irresponsible.

Last week, Ohio had 3058 new COVID-19 cases among students and faculty in their K-12 schools, nearly double the figure reported the previous week of 1,773. The spike in cases came just two days before Republican Governor Mike DeWine’s March 9 false pronouncement that “victory is in sight” in the fight against the virus. This, of course, is in addition to Illinois, where Schools are now the number one source of new infections, and Michigan, where schools are also the largest source of new outbreaks. 

 

Yes, our numbers are down in our district. Hurray! That is fantastic news. But to treat this as if the pandemic is over and the risk is insignificant is both irresponsible and foolish in light of the rapidly growing threat of the UK variant, which is substantially more infectious and deadly than the wild type covid, and far more infectious to kids than the original covid. On top of that, it is expected to become the predominant strain by the end of March. Everywhere in the world where it has surpassed the 50% threshold and become the predominant strain has seen increases in infection and mortality rates well beyond anything they experienced before. This is particularly true in Europe and in the UK.

 

California currently has the second highest number of reported UK variants in the U.S., after Florida, which surpassed the 50% threshold this week. Our surge is very likely just around the corner, making it even more irresponsible to open the schools now. The kids who come in will be exposed to it in their homes and communities. Some will come in pre- or asymptomatic, like the person at BHS who was recently diagnosed, but in much greater numbers as the UK variant proliferates. Because it’s more infectious, instead of a few students catching, next time it will be lots of students who catch it. They will take it back home and sicken their family and community members. Our schools will become breeding grounds for the virus, as they have in Michigan, Illinois and Ohio. As they have in Europe.

 

It is irresponsible and dishonest for the school district to tell families it is safe to return. Consider the following question I was asked by a student this week: “How can they say it’s safe for us to return to the classroom without being vaccinated for covid during a deadly pandemic when we are not permitted to come to school unvaccinated against polio, mumps, measles, diphtheria, pertussis and typhoid?”

 

Of course, she is right. We can promise families that their kids will not die of measles, mumps, polio, diphtheria picked up at school because we do not allow kids on campus if they have not been vaccinated against these deadly diseases. This is the definition of “safe” that most families understand when they entrust their kids to us. They expect that their children will not get sick or hurt because of something at school. This is why half our families are choosing to NOT return to school, because they can see through the dishonesty and the premature exuberance, that the pandemic is NOT over—far from it—that it is NOT safe, as they understand that word.

 

It is precisely because of vaccines that we no longer have to worry about catching polio, mumps, measles, diphtheria, typhoid in the community. And, as Dr. Michael Osterholm said, "We are within weeks to months of getting most of this country vaccinated [for covid]. Wouldn't you want not to be the person who dies two weeks before they're supposed to get their dose of vaccine? That I think is the message we have to get across."

 

Offering Zoom live to a fraction of our student population offers little to no pedagogical advantage over continuing to do it from home for the remaining few weeks of school. Sure, it gets us a few million dollars from Gov. Newsom and it gets a few angry, self-centered parents off your backs, but only temporarily. When their kids come home complaining about the strict and oppressive rules; the long lines; the fact that few of their friends are there and they can’t hang out with those who are there; that they can’t get any one-on-one attention from their teachers because they are cloistered behind their plexiglass screens, performing zoom for their students at home; that they’re doing the exact same things they were doing before, only without being in the comfort and security of their own homes; those same angry parents are going to be right back on your backs, screaming and yelling for more. For a preview of how miserable hybrid classes will be for kids, you should read this editorial from the Washington Post by a high school senior who had been excited to return, until he experienced it. Consequently, I would be very surprised if our district did not experience a similar attrition in students attending in person.

 

With respect to the Governor’s bribe, sure, of course we could use the money, but not at the risk of any illness, hospitalizations or death, and certainly not for such little return in terms of academic benefits.

 

So, instead of pandering to the loudest shouts from a vocal minority of parents, let’s do what’s safest and most responsible for the majority, including the community at large, and keep the schools closed until Fall 2021, when, hopefully, students will also have been vaccinated. The alternative, opening schools as planned, runs the very real risk of serious illness or death for some of our students and their family members, not to mention exacerbating the coming surge in the community. If this happens, our School Board and Superintendent will be asked by the community: was it worth it?

 

If you think the rude and noisy comments from parents are bad now, I would expect them to be far worse then.

 

Thank you again for your time and consideration.

Schools are now the number one source of new infections in Illinois

 Dear Superintendent and School Board Members

March 17, 2021

 Schools are now the number one source of new infections in Illinois, accounting for 21.6% of new cases. Business and retail are the 2^nd largest category, at 9.9%. 

In Michigan, schools are also the largest source of new outbreaks. 

College towns with in-person learning saw a 56% rise in covid infections. Those that offered remote learning saw an 18% decline. 

 

UK variant now accounts for 30-40% of all new covid infections in the U.S. (over 50% in Florida).  

Light at the End of the Tunnel

 Dear Superintendent and School Board Members,

March 15, 2021

"I know that people have made commitments, our elected officials have made commitments to get these schools opened up. I hope they take a pause and just at least look at these data that are showing that this may not be the time to open schools," Michael Osterholm, 3/12/21, CBS News. Osterholm noted that B117 is more infectious than the original strain of COVID-19 and causes more serious adverse health reactions, adding that studies show that that there has been an increase in serious illness in younger people in Europe.

Mitigating the spread: "We are within weeks to months of getting most of this country vaccinated. Wouldn't you want not to be the person who dies two weeks before they're supposed to get their dose of vaccine? That I think is the message we have to get across."

Safe, A Meaningless Word During a Pandemic

 Dear Superintendent and School Board Members,

March 14, 2021

Please halt this madness now, before it is too late. Reopening our schools now would be reckless, irresponsible and potentially deadly. Any claim that children do not significantly transmit COVID-19 and that schools can be safely reopened now is a lie. The most accurate and honest thing anyone can say is that with consistently effective mitigation efforts, the risk of infection and death can be reduced. Furthermore, all claims of “safety” refer ONLY to the “safety” of students and staff, but completely ignore the impact on community spread. But most significantly, the studies used to justify reopening schools are based on outdated studies of the wild type (original strain) of covid and tell us little to nothing about how the UK variant will affect students and staff.

Fallacy #1: All The Scientific Data Show That Reopening Schools is Safe This is simply untrue. What the data show is that school infections continue to happen, even with mitigation efforts, but that student deaths and hospitalizations are low compared with adults in the community at large. This is NOT safe. Safe would mean parents can trust that their kids won’t get sick or hurt at school. This is NOT something we can honestly promise them. 

1. More importantly, these studies ONLY look at the effects on students and staff, NOT on how schools contribute to community spread outside the schools. This review of international government interventions, in Nature Human Behaviour, showed school closures as second only to barring small gatherings in reducing community spread. 
2. The Journal of the American Medical Association published this study showing statewide school closures in the United States resulted in a 60 percent decrease in COVID incidence and mortality. 
3. This recent study in The Lancet looking at the impact of closing schools in 131 different countries, found that after one month, school closures were associated with a 20% decline in the reproduction number (the average number of people infected by each new case of SARS-CoV-2), while reopening school sites was associated with a 20 percent increase. 
4. In Michigan, where much of the state has resumed in-person instruction, schools are now the leading source of new COVID-19 outbreaks.  

Fallacy #2: The Current Science is Relevant 

1. All the studies saying that opening schools is safe are based on outdated research on the wild type (original strain of covid). But the British variant B.1.1.7 has grown from 1-4% of the viruses in the US analyzed four weeks ago to 30-40% now (over 50% in Florida). Therefore, the recommendations made by the CDC and other health agencies is based on outdated data and can NOT be trusted. 
2. What we do know about the UK variant is that it is significantly more infectious in school settings, significantly more contagious to kids, and substantially more deadly than the wild type. Therefore, reopening the schools now, with this strain on the rise, would not only be unsafe, but criminally irresponsible.  
3. It is 40-80% more transmissible overall, which means that when kids do pick it up at school and bring it home, it will spread much more quickly in the community, causing a sudden and sharp jump in the county’s daily infection rate, bring us quickly back into the purple tier and force us to reclose within a few weeks of reopening (or sooner).  
4. Europe is currently struggling to contain their third wave of the pandemic, caused by the more infectious and deadlier variants, and by reopening their schools and permitting public gatherings.  

There is no amount of money that Governor Newsom can give the district that would justify risking a single student getting sick, let alone dying. No amount of money that would justify contributing to the next surge, as reopening would likely do.  
 
We cannot make reckless and irresponsible decisions based on the loudest screams, coming from a minority of privileged families. When close to half our students are choosing NOT to return to the classroom, we should take that as an indication that families do NOT think it’s safe. And the number of returning students will likely decline sharply after the first week when they realize that in-person school is NOTHING like it was before the pandemic, when they realize just how onerous and unpleasant it is to stand in long lines just to get onto campus, to be fully masked for 7 hours straight, only to continue doing the same Zoom lessons as before. 
 
Mr. Superintendent, school board members, please stop ignoring the studies that say schools are unsafe. You do so at your own peril. When students and family members start getting sick, hospitalized and die, the lawsuits will follow. We cannot give any families what they really want in terms of a normalized classroom experience. Consequently, the angry complaints, the screaming and ranting, possibly even the threats, will continue, even if you continue with this reckless drive to reopen the schools.  
 
The only thing we can truly guarantee our students and families is that no one will be sickened or killed by our schools IF and ONLY IF we keep them closed and continue with Distance Learning until the pandemic is under control. 
 
Thank you again for your time and consideration, 

Reopening Schools: Dangerous and Irresponsible

 Dear Superintendent and School Board, 

March 11, 2021

You must put the brakes on reopening now and start the process of planning for the Fall, 2021 school year, and educating parents and the community about why you have changed directions. 

 

First, it is irresponsible, dangerous and cruel to be reopening any crowded indoor environments now, including schools, as most of the country is already in the early stages of the next surge, a surge that will be greatly accelerated by the presence of multiple new highly infectious variants. The UK variant is expected to become the dominant variant in the U.S. within the next two weeks. It’s 59-70% more infectious than the wild-type (original) Covid. The experience in the UK and other European countries was that it spread much more easily among children and teens, and that schools were a major source of new outbreaks. Indeed, we are already seeing large clusters of school outbreaks in Michigan, and in Colorado. 

 

It’s not just the increased risk of infection with these new variants. They are deadlier, too. A new study found that the death rate for the UK Variant was 64% higher in people 30 and older. That age group includes the vast majority of our staff members, as well as the vast majority of our students’ family members. Most adults still have not been vaccinated. Even for those 75 and older, only 50% have received their full 2 doses. The only people under 65 who have been vaccinated are some teachers, some food workers, some emergency service workers, and many frontline health workers. That leaves the overwhelming majority of parents, extended family members and community members vulnerable to infection and death by this more deadly and transmissible strain. Consequently, 2021 could be like 1919, when the Spanish flu mutated and became much more virulent, and the mortality that year dwarfed the already terrible death toll in 1918. 

 

Secondly, there is no way to ensure that the schools are truly safe. Asymptomatic and presymptomatic people easily pass through wellness checkpoints. Even with improved HVAC systems, desks 6 feet apart, masks and plexiglass shields, there will still be 10 or more people sharing an indoor space and swapping air for extended periods of time, and some virus will continue to circulate. This is why school outbreaks continue to proliferate, in spite of mitigation efforts, as we saw in Europe in Dec-Jan, and we are seeing now in Michigan and Colorado. Even the CDC’s own back-to-school recommendations were based on studies in which school outbreaks continued to happen. 

 

So, what you are really telling teachers, students, families and the public is NOT that it is safe to return to school. This is not something you can guarantee during a pandemic. What you are actually telling all of us is that YOU ARE WILLING TO ACCEPT A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF ILLNESS AND DEATH in exchange for giving roughly 50% of our students (because the other 50% have opted out, as they understand that they’d be risking their lives and those of their family members) the chance to continue doing the exact same Zoom lessons they’d be doing at home, but with masks on, inside crowded classrooms, after waiting in long lines at the wellness checks, and with oppressive restrictions on movement and behavior throughout the day. After 2-3 days of this, many of the students who opted in for in-person, will see how onerous it is. They will stop coming and we’ll be taking these unnecessary and potentially deadly risks for only a fraction of our student population. 

 

This is unacceptable. The superintendent and school board members are not gods and should not be playing god with the lives of tens of thousands of Bay Area community members. I say tens of thousands of lives because it’s not just our students who will be affected when an outbreak occurs. Infected students will take it back into their homes and neighborhoods, infect vulnerable family and community members, who will, in turn, spread it to vulnerable neighbors, shop keepers, strangers at the playground. And this will exacerbated the next surge and magnify the number of hospitalizations and deaths. 

 

One final comment on the absurdity and irresponsibility of the March 31/April 1 return-to-school date. Assuming we actually stay in the red tier for a full 4 weeks and get a full 4-5 days in the orange tier, as required by the agreement between the district and the teachers' union, this would leave us with only 2-3 days of in-person learning. Then we’ll have spring break and lots of people traveling, who will then be forbidden from returning to school. Like we saw this winter, that travel will either lead to a new surge or exacerbate the one that is brewing now, and force the reclosure of the schools. 

 

I hope I am wrong about another terrible surge sending us back into the purple. But why bother reopening for only 3 days before spring break? It would be a lot more rational, prudent and compassionate to everyone to wait until after spring break, see if we are still in the orange or if we have backslid, give people who traveled a chance to quarantine, give the district more time to upgrade and test HVAC systems and meet the other stipulations in the agreement. There is no rational or compelling reason to reopen on April 1, rather than April 12. That’s only 3 days of instructional time, but it buys us an extra 12 days to get prepared and watch the infection trends. 

 

Even more prudent, responsible, compassionate and sane would be to wait until the fall of 2021 to reopen. By then, all adults will have had the opportunity to be vaccinated. Possibly teenagers, too. Hopefully, by then, we will be back down into the yellow or green and actually be able to do the proper testing and contact tracing to keep the numbers that low. We will have had plenty of time to ensure that all HVAC systems are repaired, upgraded and tested. Plenty of time for professional development over summer break. Plenty of time to observe the infection trends and make sure we really are at protracted low-point. 

 

Lastly, there is NO acceptable amount of illness or death. Anyone, student, staff or family member, who does get sick, hospitalized or dies because of a covid infection connected to the reopening of our schools, will be a tragedy that could have been averted, that was unnecessary, and that was caused by the irresponsible decision of this school board to reopen the schools. No amount of bribery or threats from the governor justifies reopening now and subjecting anyone to the risk of dying or losing a family member. No amount of screaming and threatening by a loud and vocal minority of mostly very privileged parents justifies those risks.  

 

I understand how difficult it would be to put on the brakes now, after you’ve been cheerleading for weeks about the imminent reopening. But it can and needs to be done. And it won’t be half as difficult as writing those letters of condolence to our students, staff and family members who lose loved ones because of infections picked up at our schools. Nor half as bad as all the wrongful death lawsuits that follow. 

 

Thank you again for your time and consideration, 

The Logical Inconsistencies of School Districts' Irrational Drive to Reopen

 Dear Superintendent and School Board,

March 10, 2021

Your directive to teachers who have their own kids who are still distance learning, telling them to bring them with us to school, is dangerous, irresponsible and logically inconsistent with all previous policies about bringing our children to work. 

The only reason I can think of why you no longer consider it a liability issue, when it had always been one in the past, is that the government has exempted schools and businesses from liability due to students or staff contracting covid while at school and work. This is both illogical and absurd. If we get injured or die because of the negligence or dangerous working conditions, you are liable. Forcing anyone back to school during a raging pandemic, with all the new highly transmissible new variants now proliferating in the community, is precisely a dangerous and negligent work environment. If someone gets seriously ill or dies from covid, student or staff, the district certainly should be fully liable. There is absolutely no good reason why schools need to be, or should be, open until everyone is vaccinated (kids and adults) and the pandemic is fully under control or over. 

Consider that we do not allow anyone on campus who has not been vaccinated against polio, mumps, measles, rubella, diphtheria, typhoid, or pertussis. For these diseases, we can truly promise families that school is safe, that their children will not contract any of these diseases at school. Yet, even if every adult is vaccinated against covid, the students will not be any time before then end of the 2020-2021 school year, making every one of them vulnerable to infection and potentially death.

But even if we ignore the risks of covid, all the other same risks to the safety of our own children exist now as existed before the pandemic, plus the additional risks of our kids contracting covid or spreading it to our students. They could still fall down the stairs and crack their skulls. They could still slip on a spill or break glassware. 

In addition to that, they bring one more potential carrier of the virus into the school environment. Classrooms that have a teacher's child present in them will have more people in them than those that don't, creating both an increased risk of transmission and an equity issue for students and staff working in those classrooms. And teachers with very young children will have to attend to them (e.g., diapers, feeding, keeping them entertained and in their seats for 5 hours) at the expense of their students. If  the district tells us to take Family Leave, this is another equity issue. Why should teachers with infants and toddlers be forced to hire childcare or take unpaid family leave, when parents of older kids are allowed to bring them to work and get free babysitting?