Biden, Newsom, HIt Men For Capitalism

I'm not sure what more evidence anyone needs to see that capitalism is a piece of shit system for everyone but the richest members of society. The pandemic has enriched the country's wealthiest billionaires by $1 trillion, while the rest of us are suffering the worst levels of unemployment and income loss in a century (possibly worse than the Great Depression). Nearly every major politician, including the Democrats, and especially Biden and California Governor Newsom, have been doing everything in their power to force people back to work, shop and play under unsafe conditions that have led to over 400,000 deaths in less than a year. The message should be abundantly clear to anyone who is paying attention: Human life is irrelevant in the pursuit of profits.

The fact that  Newsom, is ending restrictions for the state, despite the fact that the overwhelming majority of the state is still in the most restrictive purple tier, has only two logical explanations:

1. He is a multi-millionaire himself and is doing the bidding of his class allies and colleagues: open up the economy, regardless how safe, so the rich can continue to make record profits. Likewise, he doesn't want to piss off his financial backers, who all want the same. 
2. He's scared shitless about the recall campaign coming from his rightwing flank and believes that by sending everyone back to unsafe working, shopping and playing conditions, right when several dangerous covid variants, with far greater transmissibility than good old-fashioned Covid-1.0, are becoming common throughout the state, he will appease them (or kill them through mass infections). 

But in his blind allegiance to Capitalism, what he fails to see is that he will also be sickening and killing thousands of his liberal supporters and motivating liberal survivors to join the recall campaign. His policies are tantamount to being a hitman for Capitalism and a mass-murderer. 

What about Biden? Almost all the same points can be made about him, too. He's a millionaire. He continues to insist that all schools will be opened within his first 100 days, regardless of the scientific data and advice from scientists. He continues to insist that 100,000 more Americans must die in the next month and that there's nothing that can be done about it, directly contradicting the advice of his own Covid transition team advisor, Michael Osterholm's, that we must stringently lockdown the entire country for 6 weeks, while providing financial and medical relief for everyone who needs it, in order to bring the pandemic back to being only really terrible, instead of its current catastrophic level.

One important scientific point that the media and politicians have almost completely failed to mention: the greater the percentage of infected people, and the longer high infection rates persist, the greater the chances for new, highly infectious and virulent strains to evolve. Pathogens can share genes. The more concentrated they are (i.e., high rate of community infection), the greater the opportunities to share genes. They also mutate spontaneously, on their own. The greater the rate of infection, the more virus particles there are going through the process of replicating their genetic material, and the greater the number of random mutations.

Therefore, getting the infection rates down significantly and quickly ought to be our primary goal, not only to save human lives and reduce suffering, but to reduce the chances of a far greater surge down the road, due to the proliferation of the British and South African strains, which we already know exist in the U.S. and are far more transmissible than Covid 1.0. California even has its own unique strain, which was nonexistent in October, 2020, but by November, 2020, was responsible for 24% of all Southern California infections. Considering how quickly Los Angeles County lost control of the pandemic, and the fact that 33% of their infections were due to this new, Socal strain, it seems likely that the Socal strain is also more infectious than good, old-fashioned Covid 1.0.

Most of California Now in Danger Zone, Newsom Shuts Down Schools

12 California counties are now in the highest alert red zone (as of 7/16/20), with over 25 new infections daily per 100,000 people, while an additional 28 counties are now in the dangerous orange zone (10-24 new daily infections per 100,000 residents), including San Francisco, which shot up from around 7 last week to well over 10 this week. (Data as of 7/16/20, from Harvard's Path to Zero website)

That's 40 counties in the red/orange combined. Governor Newsom has declared 33 of these counties to be on the "watchlist" severely limiting which businesses can be open. Further, he mandated that all schools, public and private, must be closed to in-person learning if located in one of these 33 counties. That means that both Marin and Orange Counties, which had both recently declared schools to be open this fall, will have to back down and close their schools, since they are both on the watch list.

California has been chalking up over 8,000 new infections daily for the past week and is on track to catch up with New York, though their mortality rate is substantially lower.

Race to the Bottom-36% Spike in New Covid Infections

On Saturday, 6/12/20, there were over 140,000 new Covid infections worldwide, the largest single day spike to date, and the U.S. is leading this ghoulish race to the bottom.

A leaked CDC Document shows that the U.S. had a 36.5% spike in new Covid-19 infections between June 6 and June 9, by far the worst spike of any country in the world. The next worst hit countries, India, Russia and Peru, all showed spikes of less than 5%, while Brazil, Spain, Italy and Germany showed declines. 

21 states have reported increased infections, and 9 are seeing increased rates of hospitalizations, including California, the hardest hit state in the country, where new infections have surpassed 2,500 nearly every day since Memorial Day. Yesterday (June 12, 2020), California had 3,627 new cases, according to worldometer. Over the past 2 weeks, there have been nearly 500 new cases in San Mateo County (61.6 new cases per 100,000), more than double the Governor’s benchmark for reopening (e.g., less than 25 per 100,000 over a 2-week period). In San Francisco, there have been 404 new cases over the past 2 weeks (46 per 100,000 residents), which is nearly double the Governor's benchmark. LA, which is the hardest hit county in the state, chalked up nearly 19,000 new cases over the past 2 weeks for a rate of 186.7 per 100,000, nearly 7.5 times the Governor's benchmark. San Diego County had nearly 1900 new cases over the past two weeks, for a rate of 57 per 100,000.

It is clear that the surges of new infections have been caused primarily by the reopening of businesses and the lifting of Shelter-In-Place (SIP) restrictions. Scientists also believe that Memorial Day outings contributed to the spikes and that the anti-police brutality protests likely did, as well.

Loud yelling (as occurred at the protests) is known to increase the spread of droplets and likely undermined the moderate protections afforded by masks. This fact is particularly relevant to schools, where speaking in a “teacher voice” would also increase airborne droplets, and where students, who sometimes get frustrated or angry, may yell at each other or staff.

According to Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, continuing to open things up will cause an additional 100,000 deaths by September (and that’s before flu season has even begun, when the compounding effects of the two diseases will likely cause the daily death toll to go out the roof).

Now is NOT the time to reopen schools. Keeping students and teachers home is one of the best documented ways to slow the pandemic AND save lives (for evidence of this, read here, and here, and here). Furthermore, if we care about racial justice and equity, then we must keep the schools closed. African Americans, Latinos and Pacific Islanders are the groups most affected by illness, complications and death from Covid-19. Reopening the schools to in-person learning will put these members of our community at particular risk. However, let’s not forget that one-third of all teachers are at elevated risk, regardless of ethnicity, due to age and underlying health conditions.

Teachers, Students-Do NOT Go Back to School!

In California, Governor Newsom has extended the Shelter-in-Place (SIP) through May, but at the same time, he wants to reopen schools early, in July. This would be a deadly mistake and should be opposed by everyone.

What should happen before anyone is sent back to work:

1. Infection rates need to decline to 1 new case per million residents, as prescribed by epidemiologists at UW. California is currently at 1,289 cases per 1 million residents. So, we're not even close. This low infection rate is required both to ensure that the medical system is not overloaded, like we saw in New York and Italy and Spain, AND to ensure there is sufficient time, resources and human beings to implement #2, below
2. Universal testing, contact tracing and mandatory quarantines of all infected people and their contacts. This is the only way to significantly reduce the chances that infected people don't show up at schools and work and infect others. But to do this, we'd need 20 million tests per day, and we're currently only at 150,000.

So far, there has been no serious attempt to achieve either of these goals. California is certainly flattening the curve, but we're still seeing over 1000 new cases a day. We're definitely not yet on a downward trajectory. Consequently, there's no way it'll be safe to go back to work or school in July or August.

The current proposals to "safely" reopen the schools are pathetic and absurd, and FAR FROM SAFE. Indeed, even Anthony Fauci has said that massive testing, contact tracing and quarantining will only help ensure the second wave is LESS DEADLY. Not risk-free. There will still be a second wave. There will still be more infections and death.

People are talking about blended learning systems with 10 kids per class, so that social distancing can be continued at school, and continued online learning for the 2-3 days per week students aren't in school. But why not stick with SIP and online learning for everyone, every day? Logistically, it's much easier and it's obviously safer.

More importantly, the 10 kids per class proposal is predicated on the assumption that the disease spreads entirely through droplets and that 6 feet distancing is sufficient protection. But we know the virus aerosolizes and remains viable in the air for up to 3 hours. So, even after an infected student or teacher leaves the room, and there is no one to stay 6 feet away from, the germs are still present and could still infect students and teachers in that room for the next few hours. 

Also, what about desks, doorknobs and lab benches? Who is going to disinfect them? Are custodians going to clean each classroom between every class period? And what about K-5 students? Are they going to suddenly behave with the maturity and punctiliousness of doctors with respect to washing their hands and not touching people's faces?

Administrators and politicians will be able to hide in their offices and make video announcements. Teachers will be forced to spend hours inside of potentially infected rooms. They will not be given N95 masks because there aren't any to give. Probably the same with gloves. And even if they did, these PPE are designed for brief interactions in uncrowded conditions and to be replaced often with clean, uncontaminated ones. And what about shoes and clothes? Are teachers going to have to "suit up" in special work clothes before they get out of their cars and then decontaminate before getting into them again at the end of the day?

Also discussed in some of the planning phases has been how school districts can avoid liability. This implies that they know full well they are forcing students and employees into a dangerous, potentially deadly environment. They should not be allowed to do this and certainly not without any accountability. If children are going to become orphans because their parents were forced to work in unsafe conditions, then the employer should be held liable.

Speaking of compensation, what about sick leave? If teachers or classified staff catch covid-19, they could be out for more than 2 weeks, much longer than the amount of paid sick leave most school employees are given. And what about other leave, like staying home to care for sick family members? Are school districts going to increase the amount of paid sick leave provided to their employees, or are they going to be jettisoned, like so many other workers, and left without income when sickened with covid-19?

And what about work hours? If teachers have to teach both in person and online, if they lengthen the work day or the school year to compensate for the reduced in-person learning, are they going to double or triple teachers' pay to compensate for all the extra work? Many districts are laying teachers off because of lost revenues. Where's the money going to come from to pay teachers more? 

Even if they paid teachers double to work year round, this would not be desirable. Summers are when teachers develop their curriculum for the following year, something that will be even more urgent and critical if schools reopen before the pandemic is truly over. Teachers need time to reconfigure their curriculum and develop new curriculum compatible with these new conditions.

And what about teachers' own children? If all the schools move to a blended learning model where students attend classes in person for 1-2 days per week and do online learning at home the rest of the time, who will look after teachers' children when they have to go into work? Many teachers have children who are too young to leave at home, unsupervised. Are they going to force teachers to subordinate their own children's health, safety and education to those of their students, by placing them in overcrowded childcare settings at public libraries and recreation centers, or bringing them to work with them? 

It's complete madness to be talking about reopening schools under these conditions. The only sane option is to continue with distance learning until the pandemic truly ends. Education is one of the few industries that can be done remotely. It's not ideal. Learning in a live classroom is far superior, as children benefit from the social interactions and there are countless important learning opportunities that cannot be replicated as effectively or efficiently remotely (e.g., labs).  But children are a major vector driving this pandemic, spreading it to older people with underlying health conditions. Sending children back to school too soon risks turning them into orphans, as they spread the disease to older family members.

Politico says the CTA opposes a July reopening, and that both the NEA & AFT would authorize strikes if teachers were sent back before it was safe. Problem is, there is phenomenal pressure on unions, politicians and even the health experts to get everyone back to school and work, and to say whatever they have to convince us it's safe. It would be naive to trust that the unions will continue to oppose July or August starts.

This whole thing is a terrible tragedy. Frankly, it scares the hell out of me and I see no quick way out of it. But as terrible as it is now, both in terms of deaths and economic and social hardship, this is truly just the beginning. It is likely to get far worse, even if California continues with the SIP. Too many other states have already "reopened." Infections and deaths are going to go up in those states. And in fall, when influenza picks up again, the deaths and economic problems will worsen further, possibly to the point of mass food shortages and even starvation, if too many people in the food industry get sick (as we have already seen on a small scale at Tyson, JBS and Smithfield).

Keeping the schools closed is not just about protecting students, teachers, and their families. It is a necessary tool for protecting all of us. 

The Insanity of Capitalism: States Reopen on Deadliest Day on Record

In what can only be described as insanity, Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina and several other southern states have started reopening businesses on the same day the United States chalked up more than 1800 coronavirus deaths, in the single deadliest day of the pandemic so far. Even crazier, they have done this without any protections other than a vague warning for people to practice social distancing. And the businesses that are being reopened can hardly be considered essential: gyms, tattoo parlors, massage parlors, beauty salons, movie theaters.

However, it's not just Republican governors who are sending their citizens to their deaths. Even liberal California, in spite of Governor Newsom's promise to not end the shelter-in-place until new cases have significantly declined and universal testing and contact tracing are in place (which haven't happened), beaches, playgrounds and parks are reopening in many localities.

Meanwhile, the CDC is warning of a resurgence that could be far worse than the current outbreak, particularly if it coincides with the fall flu season.

Are You Willing to Die for the Economy?

With the Covid-19 pandemic still raging across the country, President Trump and state governors, (including Gavin Newsom, of California, and Andrew Cuomo, of New York), are already talking about getting people back to work. Yet, as of now, there is no plan in place for doing this in a way that won't lead to hundreds of thousands of more deaths. Most of the health experts are saying that it is way too soon to relax social distancing policies.

Like with traffic fatalities, excess deaths from air pollution, and workplace mortality, our lives are expendable in the pursuit of corporate profits. Our injuries, sickness and deaths are merely costs of doing business.

Trump and others have argued that the cure is worse than the disease. No question about it, people are suffering, including healthy people who no longer have an income or enough food to eat. People are waiting in lines that are miles long, just get food from food banks. They're going stir crazy from being cooped up in their houses, deprived of social and physical contact with their friends, family and neighbors. But if people are forced back to work prematurely, while the pandemic is still raging, without adequate social distancing measures and personal protective equipment, AND most importantly, universal testing, contact tracing and mandatory quarantining of all infected individuals and their contacts, we will not only see a dramatic increase in new infections and deaths, but we could see far greater disruptions in the production and distribution of basic necessities, like food, water and utilities, because so many workers in these essential services have become sickened. 

Famine is already a very real possibility in many of the poorer nations of the global south, but with the proposed economic cure of sending us back to work prematurely, we could easily see famine here, in the United States, as well. While the wealthiest Americans will survive in their fortified bunkers and offshore retreats, with their stockpiles of toilet paper and prime rib, they will see their corporate profits plummet even more than they currently are, when so many Americans become sick that their businesses will no longer be able to operate, and their consumers are dropping like flies.

If that happens, the economic cure will prove to be far worse (both economically and in terms of human life) than the current social distancing program.