As Trump, state governors, and other world leaders callously and selfishly send us back to school and work, experts are predicting that the Covid-19 pandemic will last another 18 months to 2 years, until 60-70% of the population has been infected and developed some degree of immunity. This prediction is similar to what we saw with the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918.
In the United States, where there are 328.2 million people, that would translate into at least 197 million infections (at the 60% rate). At the currently accepted mortality rate of 3.2%, that would translate into 6.3 million deaths in the U.S., alone. But even if the mortality rate were an order of magnitude lower, let's say 0.3%, it could still result in 600,000 deaths.
Trump's argument that we've survived the worst of the pandemic and that it's safe to return to work and school are clearly not true. But is he simply ignorant or naive, as some have argued?
No!
The butcher knew full well that reopening the economy would result in a massive death toll. He ordered 100,000 body bags on April 21, in anticipation of the mass casualties that he knew would occur from "opening" the economy. Additionally, FEMA has order 200 refrigerated trailers to store the corpses because the morgues will be so backlogged. So, maybe he is a little naive, or simply can't do math, since this won't come close to covering 600,000 dead Americans, let alone 6.3 million.
The butcher knew full well that reopening the economy would result in a massive death toll. He ordered 100,000 body bags on April 21, in anticipation of the mass casualties that he knew would occur from "opening" the economy. Additionally, FEMA has order 200 refrigerated trailers to store the corpses because the morgues will be so backlogged. So, maybe he is a little naive, or simply can't do math, since this won't come close to covering 600,000 dead Americans, let alone 6.3 million.
At least the Veterans Administration, that bastion of corruption and incompetence, has done their math. They've bought $12 million worth of body bags. If they paid a similar price to FEMA, that would get them around 250,000 body bags, plenty to cover their 9 million patients.
So, are we left with only these two miserable choices: (A) go back to work and school, get sick, and watch millions of our friends, relatives and neighbors die from Covid-19; or (B) continue sheltering in place and struggle not to starve to death?
Of Course Not!
We could do what health experts, including Anthony Fauci, keep telling us to do, and what South Korea has effectively done:
- Universal repeated testing of Everyone
- Contact tracing of all infected individuals
- Mandatory quarantines of all infected individuals and their contacts
These 3 measures, according to Fauci, and anyone with an ounce of common sense, will help make the next wave LESS deadly and make it less dangerous to return to work and school. They will not prevent a 2nd wave. They will not eliminate the risk of infection and death. And they should be accompanied by the following:
- Continued social distancing whenever and where ever possible (ie, no concerts and live sporting events; no tattoos and massages; continued restrictions on the number of people entering stores and classrooms)
- Rebuild the medical infrastructure, purchase PPE for everyone who needs it, increase hospital capacity, continue developing and testing vaccines and anti-viral drugs,
- Give everyone what they need to survive, including sufficient cash and food
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