Return to School Cost-Benefit Analysis Doesn't Add Up

We're hearing a lot about what school might look like when it resumes in the fall. The assumption always seems to be that children and teachers will return to their school sites for some form of live, in-person education.

Why? What are the benefits? And do they outweigh the costs?

The Benefits

As far as I see it, the most compelling reason the state has for resuming school is the free childcare service that schools provide. The  American Federation of Teachers (AFT) makes this argument in their plan to "safely" reopen the schools. When children are in school, their parents can go to work. If we continue sheltering in place (SIP) and doing distance learning from home, parents have to stay home with young children and, therefore, cannot work, undermining the profits of Wall Street and the big corporations. However, the AFT plan provides weak, toothless proposals, like relaxing social distancing  after 14 days of reduced infections in a community. So far, no state has met this prerequisite, including those that have ended social distancing. Secondly, even if they had, their infection rates would still surge again if no social distancing was practiced, at least until the pandemic ended.

Much of the discussions about reopening schools in the fall are in the context of how it could be done "safely," which it can't. A common proposal is for children to only attend live classes 2 days per week b/c of social distancing (keep class sizes down to 10 students per class). If this is how schools will operate in the fall, then reopening schools won't even solve the free day care problem. Not by a long shot. Are nurses, grocery store workers,Amazon drivers, cops and firefighters going to be allowed to work only 2 days per week, so they can care for their children the other 3 days when they aren't in school?

Pedagogically, in-person learning is better than Distance Learning. But the way in-person learning will have to be implemented during a pandemic won't come close to providing those benefits. K-5 teachers won't be able to hug young children. Secondary teachers won't be able to kneel at their students' desks to provide one on one help. Students won't be able to collaborate around tables or lab benches. All of these require social proximity. If our main goal is for students to be able to collaborate on projects, Google provides ample methods for remote collaboration. 

Psychologically, children need the social interactions. My child is going nuts not being able to hang out with friends. It's heartbreaking for me to have to repeatedly say no, and explain why. But does reopening the schools under these new conditions really provide healthy, robust social interactions if students aren't allowed within 6 feet of each other? If they can't hug, shake hands, high five, watch sports together, dance? How does a band practice or perform 6 feet apart? How does a basketball team practice 6 feet apart? How do kids eat lunch together and socialize 6 feet apart? How do schools even enforce social distancing during lunch and recess?

By the way, it should be pointed out that not all the social interactions that happen at school are positive. Here's an editorial by a middle school girl in NY who loves distance learning because she can work at her own pace, in a quieter, more relaxing environment than her traditional classroom. 

The Costs

The CDC now says there will be 3,000 Covid-19 deaths PER DAY, by June 1, just in the U.S., thanks to the premature relaxing of SIP and Social Distancing policies! That's just in June. By August-September, when schools usually reopen for their fall semesters, those numbers could be much higher. Remember, this disease doubles very quickly. It is very unlikely to be "safe" to send kids and staff back, even with smaller class sizes and increased hygiene.

Each time I see an article talking about the return to school, I wonder if I'm missing something. Is there some compelling reason to reopen the schools in August that makes the risk of killing thousands of people worth it, when education can be done remotely. Or is this just another cold calculation based on the assumption that Covid-19 primarily kills old people, that only a few kids and teachers will die? 

If so, our leaders are butchers and stupid. Children and young adults can still get very sick from Covid-19, and some of them are dying. 20% of Covid-19 hospitalizations are people aged 20-44. No child or teacher should have to die to get an education or a paycheck. School is not that important. 

Even if we knew that no child was going to die from this, we know that children can spread the disease to older family members, caregivers,teachers and community members, including those with underlying conditions. Their older relatives with underlying conditions should not have to die for their education, either. According to Ed Week, fully 1/3 of all teachers are at an elevated risk of severe illness from Covid-19 due to age and underlying health conditions. Nearly 30% of teachers are older than 50, and teachers have significantly more social contact than other adults.

Sending a bunch of kids back to an environment where they are swapping more germs than they were when they were when sheltering in place (e.g., schools, daycares, religious facilities), means a much quicker spread of the virus to grocery store workers, healthcare workers, emergency responders, the people we all rely on.

According to Dr. Howard Markel, who studies pandemics, closing schools early and keeping them closed is one of the best lines of defense against a pandemic. It's one of the best ways to slow the spread and reduce the casualties. And he has data from the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic to support this conclusion.

So, When Can We Reopen the Schools?

When infection rates are down to 1 in a million; AND we've implemented regular testing of everyone (ie weekly); AND we're doing contact tracing; AND we are enforcing mandatory quarantines of everyone infected and their contacts; AND providing financial relief & adequate medical care for those infected & quarantined; ONLY THEN can schools reopen. And even then, it's still not risk-free or truly safe. It's just less risky and social distancing, good hygiene, etc., still need to continue.,