What do Fauci and Birx's recent revelations about Trump's Covid policy really tell us? Nothing we didn't already know:
- Trump lied about the science, distorted it, fabricated it
- Trump's policies killed thousands of people unnecessarily
What do Fauci and Birx's recent revelations about Trump's Covid policy really tell us? Nothing we didn't already know:
I'm not sure what more evidence anyone needs to see that capitalism is a piece of shit system for everyone but the richest members of society. The pandemic has enriched the country's wealthiest billionaires by $1 trillion, while the rest of us are suffering the worst levels of unemployment and income loss in a century (possibly worse than the Great Depression). Nearly every major politician, including the Democrats, and especially Biden and California Governor Newsom, have been doing everything in their power to force people back to work, shop and play under unsafe conditions that have led to over 400,000 deaths in less than a year. The message should be abundantly clear to anyone who is paying attention: Human life is irrelevant in the pursuit of profits.
The fact that Newsom, is ending restrictions for the state, despite the fact that the overwhelming majority of the state is still in the most restrictive purple tier, has only two logical explanations:
The vaccine is good news, but it will have little effect on infection rates (averaging around 220,000 per day in the U.S.) or deaths (averaging over 2,500 per day) for many months, or even a year, because it will take that long to get it to all the Americans who say they are willing to take it. Even then, only 71% in U.S. Now Say They'll Get the Vaccine, which is a huge increase over just a few months ago, but possibly still not enough for us to reach herd immunity. Furthermore, if we don’t Vaccinate The World, the virus will persist and continue to be reintroduced into the U.S., starting new outbreaks.
But there is a more immediate problem, and it is one that
can easily be solved: the government continues to encourage businesses to
operate, employees to go into crowded indoor environments, and children to
crowd into classrooms, in a deliberate attempt to infect as many people as possible and keep profits high. According to University of Washington’s IHME, there could
be 770,000
Deaths By April 1, Even With the Vaccine, If Leaders Don't Impose Mask
& Distancing Rules. (Or, a still staggering 540,000 deaths if they do
impose new restrictions). Either way, the Covid-19 pandemic could soon become
the deadliest event in the history of the country. (The previous record was
held by the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918-1919, which killed 675,000 people, followed by the Civil War, which killed 618,000 Americans over the course of four
years).
One problem with the hypothesis that we can keep the
mortality down to a still horrific 540,000 by April 1, by imposing mask and
distancing mandates, is that it is too vague and would likely have no teeth. By
imposing mask and distancing rules, they most likely mean telling the public to
wear masks and keep their distance from others, which they’ve been telling us
for the past ten months. These rules have never been enforced with any kind of consistency,
or teeth, anywhere in the country. When states like California tried it back in
April, morbidity and mortality did, indeed, plummet, but the governor relaxed
restrictions way too soon and morbidity and mortality jumped back up again. For
the past week or two, we’ve been averaging over 30,000 infections per day in
CA, more than almost any other country!
People are sick and tired of the restrictions, the social
isolation, their businesses floundering, and getting little or no help from the
government. And, in many people’s eyes, restrictions don’t work. The 30,000 new
infections per day seem to confirm this. Consequently, only 49%
of Americans Say They Will Shelter in Place, If the Government Recommends It.
I predict that thousands will defy the new rules and travel for Christmas and/or
continue to flaunt mask and distancing recommendations, and we’ll see either a
continued surge or a bigger one in January.
The bigger problem with this hypothesis is that it seems to
be universally interpreted by politicians and the media as a mandate to control
our voluntary social behavior (e.g., travel, parties, restaurant dining, bars, church).
But this just blames the victims and ignores the main cause of the surge: forcing
people to return to crowded indoor work environments (e.g., Amazon warehouses, automobile
assembly plants, meat processing plants) and classrooms.
Yes, the 50
million Americans who travelled for Thanksgiving exacerbated the spread of
the disease and those who travel for Christmas will continue that trend. And
yes, not wearing a mask and behaving irresponsibly also spread the disease, but
why were so many people getting infected prior to the holidays? The answer is:
school and work. The 50 million people who travelled for Thanksgiving is a
small compared with the number of people still working indoors and attending
indoor classes. Furthermore, a majority of those who travelled (or who will
travel) had been working in indoor environments and attending indoor classes
prior to their travel, thus taking the germs they picked up at work and school and spreading them to family members at holiday gatherings. Swapping indoor air is the number one way to catch the
disease (see the Stop
Swapping Air campaign). (See also Studies Show Crowded, Indoor Spaces are High
Risk for Covid).
To see just how significant this problem is, consider that Meatpacking
Plants Have Been Linked To 6-8% of All Covid Infections & 3-5% of Deaths,
nationwide. A single indoor Boston
Biotech Industry Convention Spread Covid to 245,000 People. And nearly 400,000 Covid Infections have occurred on U.S. College Campuses, as of December. Those who still believe that children don’t catch and spread the virus, should
keep in mind that over 150,000
New Juvenile Covid Cases occurred just in the Last Week of November, Bringing
the Total to More than 1.3 Million Kids Infected Since January. Michael
Osterholm, the nation’s leading pandemic expert says the
Data is Clear: It is Unsafe for Kids Age 10-19 to Be in School because they
contract and spread the disease at the same rate as adults. One study Found
that 40,600 Lives Were Saved By Closing Schools in March. Another study
found that School Closures Reduced Transmission by 40-60%.
Osterholm,
who is Biden's Covid Adivisor, Proposed a 6-Week National
Lockdown (which, of course, Biden flatly rejected). Yet, if we kept all nonessential
workers home, infection rates would plummet. If we get infection rates down to
1 new daily infection per 100,000 people, it becomes possible to do contact
tracing and quarantining to prevent small outbreaks from spreading, as they’ve successfully
done in China, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, New Zealand and Australia, each
of which has kept total infections down to around 1,000 per 1 million
residents, or less. “Essential worker” needs to be defined as literally
essential to survival (medical workers; emergency responders; food production
workers). No one will starve to death or bleed to death if teachers, bankers,
autoworkers stay home. But, of course, they must be paid so they aren’t forced
to defy the stay at home orders to prevent starvation. Small business owners
must be paid to keep their empty properties afloat until the pandemic ends.
Renters must be given money for rent or extended a rent moratorium until the
pandemic ends. Landlords must be given mortgage relief if they were relying on rental
income to make their mortgage payments. Essential workers must be provided adequate PPE and their workplaces
modified to reduce infection (e.g., fewer workers on site; more spread
out; HVAC systems that adequately filter the air). And everyone must be given free health
care, since so many would lose their employer-paid healthcare while sheltering
at home. Paid Sick Leave Helped
Reduce Covid Infections, According to this Study.
Until we have reached herd immunity (i.e., enough people
have immunity that the virus can no longer spread in the community), these
other measures are still necessary in order to save tens of thousands of lives,
to keep the healthcare system from collapsing, and to prevent thousands from suffering the
long-term and possibly permanent organ damage that often occurs with Covid-19.
First, there has been considerable socioeconomic and political fallout from the pandemic and the failure of governments to protect their citizens, both physically and financially, that will forever change how people interact and earn a living. Many businesses have gone under and will never return. It’s been estimated that 50% of all U.S. restaurants and museums will never come back. Many businesses are realizing they function just as effectively with their employees working from home, so why return to office building and continue paying rent and utilities?
But from a purely medical perspective, the idea that a
vaccine will suddenly or even slowly allow us to gather in large crowds without
masks may be pie in the sky, and here’s why:
1.
For things to truly go “back to normal,” which I
believe, for most people, means being able to gather in large groups, indoors,
without masks, without obsessive handwashing, without anxiety that anyone in
the room might be another super spreader, AND being able to send their kids
back to daily, 100%, in-person school, there would have to be enough immunity
in the population for the virus to die out and disappear completely. Experts
use the term “Herd Immunity” to refer to this condition.
2.
We have fully achieved herd immunity with
Smallpox, which is now considered extinct, through a combination of an
incredibly effective vaccine and an incredibly effective worldwide
collaboration to distribute and administer the vaccine. We’ve come close to eradicating
Polio. The reason we have not is due to several factors, including governmental
policy failures in several countries, but also because Polio immunity is much
more complex than Smallpox immunity and creating effective vaccines has been
much more difficult. Similarly, with mumps, measles, rubella, diphtheria and
many other deadly scourges of past centuries, we’ve come close, but because of
anti-vax hysteria (people refusing the vaccines for their children out of the
irrational and scientifically debunked fear that the vaccine was more dangerous
than the disease), outbreaks continue to crop up.
3.
To reach herd immunity, we need 60-80% of the
population to be immune. Herd immunity means that enough people have acquired
immunity that the virus can no longer take hold in the community, even though
some people may still be susceptible.
4.
Problem #1: we still don’t know
how effective the Covid-19 vaccine will be. If it’s 70% effective (meaning 70% of
those who get it will develop immunity) and 80% of the population receive it,
the result will be 56% of the population develops immunity (70% x 80% = 56%)—probably
too low to reach herd immunity.
a.
The FDA has said it will accept any vaccine that
proves to be safe and at least 50% effective. Yet no manufacturer has yet
completed their studies and published any data on their vaccine’s
effectiveness, so this is still a big unknown.
b.
50% effectiveness won’t get us close. Even if
100% of Americans get a vaccine that’s only 50% effective, we’d end up with
only 50% of the population acquiring immunity
5.
Problem #2: In the U.S., over 20%
of the population has vaccine hysteria and has said they will refuse any
vaccine, period, end of story. Another 30% is still on the fence. According to
CIDRAP, roughly 51%
of Americans said they’d get the vaccine. And in the most recent studies of people's willingness to take the vaccine, researchers found that only 51% of people would take the vaccine if it's only 50% effective, and only 61% if the vaccine was 90% effective. Both of these rates are too low to create herd immunity. So, if we do nothing to change this
(as we’ve done so far), that leaves only 40-50% of the population that would get
vaccinated. So, even if the vaccine is 100% effective (and no vaccine is), we will
end up with only 50-60% of the population acquiring immunity, which is far too low
to reach herd immunity. This could change, easily, with an effective and
vigorous public health outreach campaign (e.g., TV, billboards, social media, etc,
promoting how the road to normalcy is developing herd immunity, and the quickest
way to herd immunity is for everyone to get vaccinated), combined with strong
public health policies (e.g., no one is allowed into school or the workplace
without proof of having been vaccinated).
6.
Problem #3: We don’t yet know if
the covid-19 vaccine will produce full or partial immunity. Coronaviruses, in
general, and covid-19, specifically, tend to produce partial, short-term
immunity in those who have been infected. Consequently, people can, and have,
caught Covid-19 twice. And the second bout can actually cause worse symptoms
than the first one. Vaccines tend to produce more robust immune responses than
actual infections, due in part to dosing and the use of adjuvants. Even so,
the covid-19 vaccine might still only produce partial or short-term immunity
and/or require regular boosters. If this is the case, it would be much hard to
reach herd immunity, as people would have to remember to go in for their
regular boosters.
7.
Problem #4: Coronaviruses are RNA
viruses (they contain no DNA), which tend to mutate and evolve at a much higher
rate than DNA viruses (like pox viruses). Consequently, we may be faced with
new strains and even new
species of deadly coronaviruses each year, requiring completely new
vaccines each year, as is the case with influenza. Many of the vaccines currently
under testing for covid-19 are designed to recognize the spike protein common
to all coronaviruses, which, theoretically, would protect us against all new
coronaviruses, but it remains to be seen if this will in fact be true. It is
entirely possible that covid-19, or some other coronavirus, will evolve the
ability to evade the vaccine.
8.
Problem #5: Vaccines often have
varying degrees of efficacy in different age and health cohorts. For example,
the covid vaccine might be 80% effective for healthy 20 to 50-year-olds, but
only 40-50% effective for infants and toddlers or for those over the age of 80.
9.
Problem #6: Even if one of the
vaccines completes its clinical trial by the end of the year, it could take another
6-12
months before enough can be produced and distributed to the general public.
So, even if it turns out to be 90% effective, and even if 70-90% of the
population agree to take it, masks and distancing will not be going away soon. Some
experts are saying we should brace for another 2-3 years of masks and social
distancing.
The System is NOT failing children, as Heather Knight implies in her piece "The system is failing all these children" (San Francisco Chronicle, 10/23/20). On the contrary. By shutting down our schools, we have saved thousands of lives, including those of our children and their family members. It is true that distance learning is inferior to in person learning and that it is more accessible and effective for some groups than others. This is not fair and needs to be rectified. However, opening schools in the middle of a pandemic, especially as we head into winter, is the wrong solution. A recent study out of Columbia University says between 130,000 and 210,000 lives have been lost unnecessarily because we failed to implement sufficient social distancing, masks and shutdowns. Researchers at University Of Washington predict we could start losing 3,000 lives per day as we head into winter, unless such measures are fully implemented. All across the country, new outbreaks are occurring where schools are reopening. Just look at the Covid Monitor website and it's clear: negligible school-related outbreaks in California, where many school districts are doing distance learning, and rampant school outbreaks in parts of the country with widespread school openings, like Texas, Iowa and Florida.
Today Fauci said he won't advocate a national lockdown until things get "really, really bad."
But how bad do things have to get? We're already averaging over 50,000 new infections per day. Experts are predicting 2,500-3,000 deaths per day by December, and a total of 400,000 dead by early 2021. Many states are already running out of hospital beds. Only 2 states currently have downward trends in their infection rates. And we're still in early fall. What happens when people really start congregating in groups indoors as the weather worsens? When people gather in extended families for the holidays? When influenza rates starts to peak? When all those kids attending in-person classes start to infect their older and vulnerable family members?
At what point do Fauci and his supporters stop saying, "he's just trying to protect his job," or "he can do more good if he's still employed?"
Capitalists make their profits by paying workers less than the value of the goods or services they produce. The math is pretty simple. The less they are given in wages and benefits, the greater the profits. However, bosses can't pay us nothing. If we starve to death, we can no longer produce commodities or earn them profits. Furthermore, if we're dead, we cannot buy their products, either. What about K12 teachers? We don't produce any goods or services that are sold for a profit. But we do two things that are essential for capitalism: (1) we provide free babysitting for other workers and (2) we train future workers to have the basic skills necessary to labor and consume. Hence, the hysterical demands of politicians at all levels of government to immediately reopen K12 schools across the country, despite the high infection rates and regular outbreaks stemming from these openings.
There is, of course, a solution, both to the safety of K12 schools, as well as the economic and health crisis facing the planet: END THE PANDEMIC.
This can, theoretically, be accomplished with an effective vaccine, which we are supposedly close to having. The Protocols for Equitable Distribution of Covid Vaccine, written up by the National Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine, has placed K12 teachers near the top of the list for highest priority to receive the vaccine. Phase 1a would vaccinate high risk health workers. Phase 1b would vaccinate high risk, comorbid members of the community. And Phase 2 would vaccinate all K12 teachers. These groups would be the highest priority Americans to get the vaccine, well ahead of K12 age school kids, their families, and well ahead of other high risk, truly essential workers (e.g., those in the food production and distribution industries).
Dear Superintendent and School Board, It is not too late to reverse the irresponsible and potentially deadly plan to reopen our scho...