Famine of Biblical Proportions--Over 300,000 Dead per Day

The Covid-19 pandemic is already the worst humanitarian and economic crisis since the 2nd World War. However, the United Nations is now warning of multiple famines of biblical proportions, particularly in nations already suffering from war, famine and climate catastrophes (e.g., Sudan, South Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Yemen, Afghanistan, Haiti, Venezuela).

The World Food Program Director, David Beasley, said that even before the pandemic, over 800 million people were regularly going to bed hungry, while 135 million were suffering "crisis" level hunger. Their program feeds roughly 100 million people daily, 30 million of whom would die if they couldn't be reached. But this is exactly what the covid-19 pandemic is doing: making it harder to reach people in need and harder to get food through the supply chain. Their analysis shows that 300,000 of those 30 million people will start dying every single day.

This is only taking into account those who were already at risk of starvation. As countries lock down and supply chains get disrupted, it places even more people at risk, including in wealthy countries like the United States. We are already seeing this with the miles long lines at food banks.

Opening Economies Will Lead to Worse Famine
The idiot-leaders of the world's nations who claim the cure is worse than the disease, who assert that they will get our economies running again, our jobs back, our stores and restaurants open again, food in our bellies, by relaxing or ending their social distancing programs, are only going to make the problem worse. Social distancing clearly works. We saw it in China, South Korea, Taiwan. We're seeing it now in California, where the per capita infection and mortality rates are among the lowest in the nation, and where the infection rates are flattening in nearly every county in the state.

Yet, if we reopen cities and states too soon, we will likely see a second wave of infections and deaths that is far worse than what we're currently experiencing. Without any mitigation at all, we could see deaths in the millions, just in the U.S. Health experts are already warning of a second and much worse wave in the fall if we open things up too soon. We may start to see this in the coming weeks in places like Georgia, South Carolina and Tennessee, where they have already started to reopen their economies. And as we approach the next flu season, hospitals will be overwhelmed even more quickly than they are now, as they contend with pneumonia and severe respiratory distress from both Influenza and Covid-19 patients.

But what about the economy? Won't those regions, like California, that continue to lock-down, suffer the worst long-term economic consequences? Probably not. Data from the 1918 Influenza Pandemic, which killed 50-100 million people world wide, shows that cities with the most aggressive social distancing programs NOT ONLY saved the most lives, BUT ALSO recovered the quickest economically. And the reason should be obvious: fewer sick and dead people means more healthy, able-bodied workers once it's safe to come back to work. In contrast, in an area where the pandemic is sickening large numbers of people, the economy shuts down anyway due to lack of healthy workers and consumers, AND it takes longer to recover because so many people are sick or dead.

So, whether they care more about human life or their respective stock portfolios, the world's leaders need to look at the long game: Maintaining aggressive social distancing policies will save both. Prematurely reopening economies, as they are currently doing, will backfire and result in far more deaths and far worse economic outcomes that will last much longer.

The Insanity of Capitalism: States Reopen on Deadliest Day on Record

In what can only be described as insanity, Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina and several other southern states have started reopening businesses on the same day the United States chalked up more than 1800 coronavirus deaths, in the single deadliest day of the pandemic so far. Even crazier, they have done this without any protections other than a vague warning for people to practice social distancing. And the businesses that are being reopened can hardly be considered essential: gyms, tattoo parlors, massage parlors, beauty salons, movie theaters.

However, it's not just Republican governors who are sending their citizens to their deaths. Even liberal California, in spite of Governor Newsom's promise to not end the shelter-in-place until new cases have significantly declined and universal testing and contact tracing are in place (which haven't happened), beaches, playgrounds and parks are reopening in many localities.

Meanwhile, the CDC is warning of a resurgence that could be far worse than the current outbreak, particularly if it coincides with the fall flu season.

Covid Tests Now Available for Healthy SF Residents, But the Results Could be Meaningless

San Francisco-based One Medical is now offering coronavirus tests to anyone without symptoms. While this is step in the direction of universal testing, a prerequisite for relaxing the shelter-in-place, the test results could be meaningless without (1) repeated testing; (2) contact tracing; and (3) mandatory quarantines for those infected and their contacts. Also, One Medical is not offering the test for free, which should be a prerequisite before the shelter-in-place restrictions is relaxed. They claim they will bill your insurance company, assuming you have one.

One reason why a single test is meaningless is that a person's viral load varies over time. During the first few days after exposure, the viral load could be undetectable, even with a test. Hence, a person who runs off for a test immediately after coming into contact with an infected individual might get a negative result, but a few days later start showing symptoms. In those days when they thought they were corona-free, they could have gone out and exposed vulnerable people, family members, colleagues.

2nd, when they do open the economy back up, every time we go into public, whether it's work or school or shopping or religious or social events, we will risk coming into contact with infected individuals. So, until the pandemic has truly died out or we have developed an effective vaccine or treatment, universal testing, contact tracing and quarantines will need to continue and be repeated regularly. Indeed, perhaps the least risky approach is to develop a 5-10 minute test that is administered at the entrance of every facility that is open and operating and require a negative result before anyone is let in.

Should you go and get a test? I don't see the benefit, unless you think you might have been infected recently, or you are a front line worker where the risk of exposure was high, or you are worried about infecting your clients. The rest of us in the Bay Area have supposedly been staying home, staying at least six feet away from others on our walks, and wearing masks in grocery stores. So, our risk of infection should be extremely low.

Workers Resist the Drive Back to Work

San Francisco-based One Medical is now offering coronavirus tests to anyone without symptoms. While this is step in the direction of universal testing, a prerequisite for relaxing the shelter-in-place, the test results could be meaningless without (1) repeated testing; (2) contact tracing; and (3) mandatory quarantines for those infected and their contacts. Also, One Medical is not offering the test for free, which should be a prerequisite before the shelter-in-place restrictions is relaxed. They claim they will bill your insurance company, assuming you have one.

One reason why a single test is meaningless is that a person's viral load varies over time. During the first few days after exposure, the viral load could be undetectable, even with a test. Hence, a person who runs off for a test immediately after coming into contact with an infected individual might get a negative result, but a few days later start showing symptoms. In those days when they thought they were corona-free, they could have gone out and exposed vulnerable people, family members, colleagues.

2nd, when they do open the economy back up, every time we go into public, whether it's work or school or shopping or religious or social events, we will risk coming into contact with infected individuals. So, until the pandemic has truly died out or we have developed an effective vaccine or treatment, universal testing, contact tracing and quarantines will need to continue and be repeated regularly. Indeed, perhaps the least risky approach is to develop a 5-10 minute test that is administered at the entrance of every facility that is open and operating and require a negative result before anyone is let in.

Should you go and get a test? I don't see the benefit, unless you think you might have been infected recently, or you are a front line worker where the risk of exposure was high, or you are worried about infecting your clients. The rest of us in the Bay Area have supposedly been staying home, staying at least six feet away from others on our walks, and wearing masks in grocery stores. So, our risk of infection should be extremely low.

Are You Willing to Die for the Economy?

With the Covid-19 pandemic still raging across the country, President Trump and state governors, (including Gavin Newsom, of California, and Andrew Cuomo, of New York), are already talking about getting people back to work. Yet, as of now, there is no plan in place for doing this in a way that won't lead to hundreds of thousands of more deaths. Most of the health experts are saying that it is way too soon to relax social distancing policies.

Like with traffic fatalities, excess deaths from air pollution, and workplace mortality, our lives are expendable in the pursuit of corporate profits. Our injuries, sickness and deaths are merely costs of doing business.

Trump and others have argued that the cure is worse than the disease. No question about it, people are suffering, including healthy people who no longer have an income or enough food to eat. People are waiting in lines that are miles long, just get food from food banks. They're going stir crazy from being cooped up in their houses, deprived of social and physical contact with their friends, family and neighbors. But if people are forced back to work prematurely, while the pandemic is still raging, without adequate social distancing measures and personal protective equipment, AND most importantly, universal testing, contact tracing and mandatory quarantining of all infected individuals and their contacts, we will not only see a dramatic increase in new infections and deaths, but we could see far greater disruptions in the production and distribution of basic necessities, like food, water and utilities, because so many workers in these essential services have become sickened. 

Famine is already a very real possibility in many of the poorer nations of the global south, but with the proposed economic cure of sending us back to work prematurely, we could easily see famine here, in the United States, as well. While the wealthiest Americans will survive in their fortified bunkers and offshore retreats, with their stockpiles of toilet paper and prime rib, they will see their corporate profits plummet even more than they currently are, when so many Americans become sick that their businesses will no longer be able to operate, and their consumers are dropping like flies.

If that happens, the economic cure will prove to be far worse (both economically and in terms of human life) than the current social distancing program.

61% of Covid-19 Infections in S.F. are People Under 50

61% of Covid-19 infections in San Francisco are in people under the age of 50 (Graphic and more data available from the SF Dep of Public Health)

Supreme Court Sentences Wisconsin Voters to Death

Bowing to demands from the Republican party, the Wisconsin Supreme Court has declared that in-person voting must happen today, despite the clear and obvious risk to voters. The consequence of this stupid, callous, self-serving act will no doubt be an upsurge in infections and deaths in Wisconsin.

Fears of infection have caused thousands of volunteer poll-workers to opt out, forcing the use of National Guard troops to run the polls. 

Staying Home is a Luxury--Coronavirus Disproportionately Kills the Poor

Family scavenging for food in Paraguay

The New York Times reported yesterday that Staying Home Was A Luxury.

Well. . . duh. Who would've thought otherwise? 

Poor and working class folks are much more likely than wealthier folks to work in essential industries, like food production and distribution; shipping and delivery services; public transit and utilities; even a large segment of the healthcare industry. They cannot stay home. And their kids are more likely to be continuing to attend crowded day care to allow them to continue working.

The poor and working class, especially those who've lost their jobs, have to stand in long, crowded lines to get food from food banks and pantries. The desperately poor and hungry, like the family in the photo above, must brave crowds to get food from whatever sources they can. The homeless are being infected at crowded shelters, even in liberal cities like San Francisco, which has commandeered thousands of hotel rooms for the unhoused residents, but has been slow in getting them into the units. In many cities, like Las Vegas, which has 30,000 unoccupied hotel rooms, they are continuing to force unhoused folks to continue living in the streets and parks.

However, the worst outcomes for the poor will likely be seen in the poorest countries of the global south, where malnutrition is high, and access to clean water and medical care is very low.

Anyone with a computer and internet can check out the real time data on social distancing themselves, on Google's new Covid-19 Mobility Tracker. Check out the comparisons below:

Here was see California, with the 5th richest population in the U.S., with significantly more compliance with the stay at home orders, than Alabama, the 7th poorest. And below, I've compared California's wealthiest County, Santa Clara, with its poorest, Lake County. (Santa Clara County, until very recently, was the epicenter of California's outbreak, until Los Angeles surpassed it. Perhaps their compliance with the social distancing policies are having the desired effects???)

Greatest Country in the World for Whom?

The United States is the richest country in the world. So what?

Under normal circumstances, one would expect repulsion at the fact that Jeff Bezos, head of Amazon, makes $150,000 per minute, more than triple the median ANNUAL income of U.S. workers. Or that 20% of Americans own 80% of the wealth. Or that 40 million Americans don't have enough to eat, even in "good" times.

But in a pandemic, with more than 500 people a day dying in New York from Covid-19; with Detroit making it official policy to DENY treatment to its sickest residents; with 6.6 million Americans filing for unemployment last week, and the St. Louis Fed predicting 50 million unemployed by July; the contradictions of capitalism, the greed and disregard for human life, should be obvious to everyone.

Take Amazon, which continues to force its employees to work with minimal or no PPE, the majority for $15/hour poverty wages, while at least 10 of their facilities have confirmed outbreaks of Covid-19. They also just fired an employee in Staten Island for leading a walk-out.

Trump has responded to the crisis by giving trillions of dollars to Wall Street and demanding we all go back to work, claiming the consequences of sheltering in place are far worse than the disease itself. Trillions for Wall Street and Corporate America, and pennies for working Americans and the rebuilding of our medical infrastructure. Not surprisingly, America's cities are desperately unprepared for the coming wave of infections and demand for ICU and ER beds.

A survey done by the U.S. Conference of Mayors on Friday (3/27/20), found that:

• 92% of U.S. cities lack sufficient Covid-19 test kits
• 91.5% have insufficient masks for 1st responders & medical staff
• 88% said they lacked enough other PPE for these workers (gloves, gowns, etc)
• 85% do not have enough ventilators
• 62.4% said they have NOT received any emergency medical supplies from their state governments

The U.S. has far more Nobel laureates in Physiology & Medicine than any other country (93, compared with the UK, #2, with only 29), by far the greatest share of Pharmaceutical R&D expenditures in the world (over 60% of all Pharma R&D is done by US companies, see graph above). One would think we'd be better prepared.

Not under the logic of capitalism, where hospitals maximize profits by ensuring that few, if any, beds are left open for emergencies like this one; where the number of U.S. companies producing flu vaccine (which kills 10-60,000 Americans per year, and continues to do so along side Covid-19), has gone down from 37, in 1976, to only 7, today because it is not profitable; where nearly 1 in 4 workers have no paid sick leave and have to continue working when sick so they don't get evicted or starve, potentially exposing and sickening their coworkers; where millions of Americans still lack health insurance, despite the Affordable Care Act; where we let 259,000 Americans die each year from preventable or treatable causes because it's more profitable for business to do so.

Record 900 US Deaths Yesterday

While SF cases of covid-19 seem to be leveling out (at least for now), the pandemic continues to rage in other major U.S. cities. Yesterday, the U.S. tallied a record 912 deaths and another 24,700 new cases (according to Worldometer). Anthony Fauci and other scientists are saying that without strict mitigation, we could see 1-2 million deaths, just in the U.S. and, even with mitigation, their best-case predictions are close to 250,000 deaths.