Sunday, April 19, 2020

Covid Tests Now Available for Healthy SF Residents, But the Results Could be Meaningless

San Francisco-based One Medical is now offering coronavirus tests to anyone without symptoms. While this is step in the direction of universal testing, a prerequisite for relaxing the shelter-in-place, the test results could be meaningless without (1) repeated testing; (2) contact tracing; and (3) mandatory quarantines for those infected and their contacts. Also, One Medical is not offering the test for free, which should be a prerequisite before the shelter-in-place restrictions is relaxed. They claim they will bill your insurance company, assuming you have one.

One reason why a single test is meaningless is that a person's viral load varies over time. During the first few days after exposure, the viral load could be undetectable, even with a test. Hence, a person who runs off for a test immediately after coming into contact with an infected individual might get a negative result, but a few days later start showing symptoms. In those days when they thought they were corona-free, they could have gone out and exposed vulnerable people, family members, colleagues.

2nd, when they do open the economy back up, every time we go into public, whether it's work or school or shopping or religious or social events, we will risk coming into contact with infected individuals. So, until the pandemic has truly died out or we have developed an effective vaccine or treatment, universal testing, contact tracing and quarantines will need to continue and be repeated regularly. Indeed, perhaps the least risky approach is to develop a 5-10 minute test that is administered at the entrance of every facility that is open and operating and require a negative result before anyone is let in.

Should you go and get a test? I don't see the benefit, unless you think you might have been infected recently, or you are a front line worker where the risk of exposure was high, or you are worried about infecting your clients. The rest of us in the Bay Area have supposedly been staying home, staying at least six feet away from others on our walks, and wearing masks in grocery stores. So, our risk of infection should be extremely low.

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