Monday, March 30, 2020

UW Model of How Covid-19 Could Spread in the U.S.

Researchers at the University of Washington have modeled how the pandemic is likely to spread over the next several months. They predict that deaths will peak around the middle of April
According to their modeling, there will be over 2200 deaths per day, nationwide, as we move through the middle of April. They also predict that California will hit its peak at the end of April, with 100 deaths per day, even taking into account the existing Shelter in Place.


At the same time, new cases in San Francisco have declined from 45-56 per day from 3/25-2/27, to only 30 per day from 3/27-3/29.  A scientist at the UCSF Town Hall Meeting, on Friday, 3/27, thought we'd know by today if the curve was flattening, and it looks like it is (for now). With several new confirmed cases at Laguna Honda, this could change very soon and we could start seeing a sharp increase in fatalities.


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Biased Science in the Service of Capital

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