New Study Suggests Covid-19 Mortality is Much Lower Than Previously Thought

A new study, published in the Lancet Infectious Diseases, suggests that Covid-19 mortality may be as low as 0.6%, when taking into account all the patients who are asymptomatic or who have mild symptoms. We probably won't know the actual mortality rate for years after the pandemic has fizzled out, and only with antibody testing.

Is the Curve Flattening in San Francisco?

Is the Curve Flattening in San Francisco? Considering how early we started the shelter-in-place in the SF Bay Area, one would think we would have a slower transmission rate than other regions. Let's look at the recent data:

Yesterday, 3/30, there were 34 new cases of Covid-19, for a total of 374 (See graphs below).

Day before yesterday, 3/29, there were 32 new cases, for a total of 340.

Day before that, 3/28, there were 29 new cases, for a total of 308.

Day before that, 3/27, there were 56 new cases, for a total of 279.

Day before that, 3/26, there were 45 new cases, for a total of 223.

We were doubling every 3-4 days up until March 27, when we saw our highest number of new infections (56). But since then, we’ve had 3 days in a row with closer to 30 new infections per day.

So, have we really flattened the curve? Will this trend hold? Time will tell. One thing to consider is the large number of recent infections at Laguna Honda skilled nursing center. Another thing to consider is that California, as a whole, has done very little testing, and still has 50,000 or so tests pending results. Once those results come in, the total number of cases could skyrocket. One last thing to consider: Santa Clara County, just south of SF, had a spike of 200 new cases between 3/29 and 3/30. Their curve is definitely not flattening, and infections could spill over into SF in the coming weeks.

Make A Difference: Join the UCSF Covid-19 Citizen Science Project

March 26, 2020, UCSF researchers launched their Covid-19 Citizen Science Initiative (CCS) to better understand the epidemiology of Covid-19. The initiative allows any adult with a smart phone to become a Citizen Scientist and help researchers understand how the virus is spreading and identify ways to predict and reduce new infections. They hope to get at least a million participants by getting their App to "Go Viral" and spread even faster than the actual virus.

To participate, open the following URL https://eureka.app.link/covid19 on your smartphone. (If prompted, enter the study key: covid) or text “COVID” to 41411.

Help stop the spread of Covid-19 by spreading the CCS App--Share it with at least 5 friends or colleagues.

A View From Inside a NY Emergency Room

This footage is tragic and frustrating. The doctors and nurses are strained to the limit. They don't have enough protective equipment for themselves, or life saving equipment for their patients.

The main goal of Social Distancing and Shelter in Place is to "flatten the curve," which is to say, slow down the rate of infection before the medical system becomes overwhelmed, like it is in New York City, Italy, Madrid, and now in Detroit (where they are already rationing healthcare to those with the best chances of survival), New Orleans and many other places.

Governor Cuomo was late to enact social distancing policies in New York.

California, and especially the SF Bay Area, acted much sooner. Hopefully, soon enough. We should know in the next week or so if the efforts here have succeeded in slowing down the infection rate.

UW Model of How Covid-19 Could Spread in the U.S.

Researchers at the University of Washington have modeled how the pandemic is likely to spread over the next several months. They predict that deaths will peak around the middle of April
According to their modeling, there will be over 2200 deaths per day, nationwide, as we move through the middle of April. They also predict that California will hit its peak at the end of April, with 100 deaths per day, even taking into account the existing Shelter in Place.

At the same time, new cases in San Francisco have declined from 45-56 per day from 3/25-2/27, to only 30 per day from 3/27-3/29.  A scientist at the UCSF Town Hall Meeting, on Friday, 3/27, thought we'd know by today if the curve was flattening, and it looks like it is (for now). With several new confirmed cases at Laguna Honda, this could change very soon and we could start seeing a sharp increase in fatalities.